The OECD’s most recent Economic Outlook report has projected that Australia’s real GDP growth is expected to slow from 1.9% in 2023 down to 1.4% in 2024 before then recovering to 2.1% in 2025.
The report also expects unemployment to rise, potentially reaching 4.4% in 2025. The OECD has also predicted that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain its current interest rate until at least the third quarter of 2024. Jim Chalmers, Australia’s treasurer, welcomed this projection.
Mr. Chalmers is expected to provide updated budget projects in mid December, with pundits assuming that Australia’s deficit will be smaller than originally projected in May’s budget. This follows tax revenue being higher than originally forecast and greater royalties from commodities.
Despite this, Mr. Chalmers cautioned Australians of expecting a budgetary surplus, despite an improved fiscal condition:
“People shouldn’t anticipate that we will print a second surplus in that mid-year budget update…They should expect to see a really substantial improvement in the bottom line.”
Worldwide the OECD predicted global GDP growth to be 2.7% in 2024, before growing to 3% in 2025.
Which countries are part of the OECD?
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 38 member countries originally founded in 1961. It is self described as an international organisation “that works to build better policies for better lives.” The OECD is led by former-Australia politician, Mathias Cormann, who serves as the OECD’s Secretary-General.